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It was two months ago when Morgan Rogers stood on the pitch at Sunderland, seeming perplexed while the Villa manager admonished him over failing to anticipate a through-ball. During that period, as Villa failed to win in six, doubts remained whether his displays were a sign or the source of Villa's more general malaise.

“Following Rogers' second strike… Emery discarded his jacket, extended his arms, and let out a triumphant roar.”

This weekend, in contrast, the sideline response proved to be decidedly more positive. After Rogers curled home his second to reinstate Villa's lead, the Spanish tactician discarded his winter coat, opened his arms and bellowed. Villa were on their way to ten wins in a row , despite not winning any of their first six fixtures, now sit only three points behind table-toppers Arsenal.

Is Aston Villa Genuine Challengers?

It remains an exceptionally difficult query to answer. Past precedent, the perceived status of this institution, argues against it. Furthermore, they have not been entirely convincing during this run, even as the victories have stacked up.

According to statistical analysis, on just two occasions has the team posted an xG notably superior than the opposition. For a club who have strung together ten consecutive victories, they appear strangely fragile – yet currently the margins are going in their favour.

The Winning Formula

Their recent policy looks like to trade blows with rivals and then rely on Rogers to bail them out with two clinical strikes. This occurred at Leeds, it transpired against West Ham, and it happened when facing United.

Rogers' first goal stemmed from an exquisite effort, bent just inside the post from the edge of the area. For his second acted as a somewhat messier replica of the opener as he seized on an Ollie Watkins lay-off.

“Much like Robben with his left, Rogers’ right foot has become a known threat that remains brutally unstoppable, regardless of anticipation.”

How Long Can This Continue?

Logic says not. In the recent win, the opposition had more shots and more direct attempts. Villa have secured their last eight victories by just one goal. They’ve conceded in nearly all of those matches.

Regression to the mean could be the most significant challenge they will encounter over the coming weeks. Rogers, surely, will not continue to thrashing his shots into the net's top corner week in, week out.

Reasons for Optimism

Could it be a different scenario whereby, rather than outcomes regressing to match displays, the team's displays improve to justify the wins. Key players might still return to peak condition.

• The main striker could start finding the net regularly.
• The winger may rediscover the performer he resembled at Borussia Dortmund.
• The defensive duo are set to regain fitness, strengthening a sometimes shaky defence.

Perhaps there is in that the potential for a sustained push, but they surely can persist in leaning entirely on a single individual.

Enjoying the Ride

But then, this is a surprise. It seemed improbable the team would be third at Christmas. And most definitely back in October, few could imagine Rogers as the year closed would be spearheading a title charge and appearing as an essential player for the national team.

This remarkable period should be enjoyed precisely because it seems so surreal. As Rogers positioned himself before the North End after the match orchestrating the applause, he seemed to be thoroughly enjoying it. Which he fully merits. These spells do not happen often and ought to be celebrated.