🔗 Share this article An Forecasting Platform Participant Made $436K on Bets on Venezuela's Political Shift. A smartphone screen displays a prediction market application logo. A bettor profited close to $500,000 on the ouster of Venezuela's president just before it was officially announced, leading to inquiries about whether someone profited from non-public details of American actions. Changing Odds in Forecasts Predictions made on the forecasting site, an online prediction market, that Nicolás Maduro would be removed from office by the end of January surged in the time leading up to President Donald Trump stated on the weekend that Maduro had been taken into custody. One account, which joined the platform in December and took four positions, all on Venezuela, earned over $436K from a modest bet of $32.5K. Who placed the bet is a mystery. The anonymous account had only a string of letters and numbers for identification. Market Signals Before News Break Platform data shows that users estimated the likelihood of the president's removal at just a low 6.5 percent in the late afternoon of the prior Friday. Yet the odds had increased to 11% by late Friday night and spiked dramatically in the morning of Saturday, suggesting a sharp shift in betting activity immediately prior to the public announcement was made. "This specific wager has all the characteristics of a trade based on confidential knowledge," stated Dennis Kelleher. Several of other individuals also profited large payouts from similar wagers. Legal Questions Emerges Elected officials are starting to take note. A bill presented on Monday seeks to ban federal workers from making trades on prediction markets if they have "material nonpublic information" related to a market. Industry Context Forecasting platforms have surged in popularity in recent years, with participants able to wager on everything from sports outcomes to politics. This sector encountered regulatory challenges under the last presidential term. However it has received a warmer welcome during the Trump presidency. Trading on insider information is a crime in the stock market, but there are less oversight in the prediction market space. An official representative for a competing service said their site "explicitly prohibits such activities of any form."